What Is Transferred in Causal Generalization Across Contexts?

The covariation and causal power account for causal induction make different predictions for what is transferred in causal generalization across contexts. Two experiments tested these predictions using hypothetical scenarios in which the effect of an intervention was evaluated between (Experiment 1) or within (Experiment 2) groups. Each experiment contained a manipulation of ΔP, power and their combination. Both experiments found that causal transfer was determined by ΔP rather than causal power. The overall transfer pattern supports ΔP transfer account rather than the other transfer accounts. Causal transfers based on ΔP are irrational, violating the coherence criterion of the causal power framework. The ΔP transfer is consistent with previous findings that ΔP is a main mental non-normative measure of causal strength in causal induction.