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Anchoring and Adjustment in Uncertain Spatial Trajectory Prediction.

Nathan Herdener1, Benjamin A Clegg1, Christopher D Wickens1

  • 1Colorado State University, Fort Collins.

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Prior information influences spatial predictions, but this effect is short-lived. High cognitive workload hinders adjustment to new data, impacting decision-making in uncertain environments.

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cognitive biasdecision makingspatial predictionuncertaintyworkload

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Human-Computer Interaction
  • Spatial Cognition

Background:

  • Spatial prediction tasks, like hurricane forecasting, require understanding both likely outcomes and variability.
  • Human performance in these tasks, especially understanding outcome distributions, is often poor.
  • Decision-makers must update mental models with new information, even under cognitive load.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate how prior information impacts spatial prediction and the understanding of outcome variability.
  • To examine the effect of cognitive workload on adjusting predictions based on new information.

Main Methods:

  • Participants performed a spatial-trajectory prediction task, receiving accurate, inaccurate, or no prior information (anchors).
  • They predicted future object locations and estimated likelihoods.
  • A second experiment introduced varying levels of external cognitive workload.

Main Results:

  • Prior anchoring influenced the prediction of the most likely location, with adjustments occurring even with inaccurate anchors.
  • Increased cognitive workload reduced overall performance and impaired the ability to adjust predictions.
  • Overconfidence in predictions was observed across all experimental conditions.

Conclusions:

  • Prior information has a temporary effect on spatial predictions.
  • Cognitive load significantly impairs the adjustment process when integrating new information.
  • Accurate graphical anchors did not enhance the understanding of variability in spatial predictions.