Postdictive confidence (but not predictive confidence) predicts eyewitness memory accuracy

Area of Science:

• Cognitive Psychology
• Forensic Psychology
• Eyewitness Memory Research

Background:

• Eyewitness confidence at the time of identification (postdictive confidence) reliably predicts memory accuracy under ideal conditions.
• Postdictive confidence is often unavailable or poorly documented in real-world scenarios.
• Predictive confidence judgments (e.g., judgments of learning) made shortly after an event are considered as a potential alternative indicator of eyewitness accuracy.

Purpose of the Study:

• To compare the accuracy of predictive and postdictive confidence judgments in predicting eyewitness memory.
• To investigate whether variables like exposure duration and face race affect the confidence-accuracy relationship for both predictive and postdictive judgments.
• To determine the reliability of predictive judgments of learning (JOLs) as a proxy for eyewitness accuracy when postdictive confidence is unavailable.

Main Methods:

• Two experiments were conducted to assess eyewitness memory accuracy.
• Participants made predictive confidence judgments (immediate and delayed JOLs) and postdictive confidence judgments for same- and cross-race faces.
• Recognition memory accuracy was compared across different confidence levels and face types.

Main Results:

• Delayed JOLs, while better than low JOLs, showed objectively low accuracy in predicting recognition memory for both same- and cross-race faces.
• Postdictive confidence was a significantly stronger predictor of eyewitness memory accuracy compared to predictive JOLs.
• High postdictive confidence was consistently associated with high accuracy for both same- and cross-race face recognition.

Conclusions:

• Postdictive confidence is a more reliable indicator of eyewitness memory accuracy than predictive confidence judgments (JOLs).
• Even high predictive confidence judgments have limited accuracy in forecasting eyewitness recall.
• The findings highlight the importance of obtaining postdictive confidence measures in eyewitness identification research and practice.