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Postdictive confidence (but not predictive confidence) predicts eyewitness memory accuracy.

Thao B Nguyen1, Erica Abed1, Kathy Pezdek1

  • 1Department of Psychology, Claremont Graduate University, Claremont, CA 91711 USA.

Cognitive Research: Principles and Implications
|September 22, 2018
PubMed
Summary

Eyewitness confidence at identification tests (postdictive confidence) strongly predicts memory accuracy. Predictive confidence judgments (JOLs) are less reliable, even when high, for assessing eyewitness memory for faces.

Keywords:
Confidence-accuracyCross-race effectEyewitness memoryJudgments of learningMetamemory

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Forensic Psychology
  • Eyewitness Memory Research

Background:

  • Eyewitness confidence at the time of identification (postdictive confidence) reliably predicts memory accuracy under ideal conditions.
  • Postdictive confidence is often unavailable or poorly documented in real-world scenarios.
  • Predictive confidence judgments (e.g., judgments of learning) made shortly after an event are considered as a potential alternative indicator of eyewitness accuracy.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare the accuracy of predictive and postdictive confidence judgments in predicting eyewitness memory.
  • To investigate whether variables like exposure duration and face race affect the confidence-accuracy relationship for both predictive and postdictive judgments.
  • To determine the reliability of predictive judgments of learning (JOLs) as a proxy for eyewitness accuracy when postdictive confidence is unavailable.

Main Methods:

  • Two experiments were conducted to assess eyewitness memory accuracy.
  • Participants made predictive confidence judgments (immediate and delayed JOLs) and postdictive confidence judgments for same- and cross-race faces.
  • Recognition memory accuracy was compared across different confidence levels and face types.

Main Results:

  • Delayed JOLs, while better than low JOLs, showed objectively low accuracy in predicting recognition memory for both same- and cross-race faces.
  • Postdictive confidence was a significantly stronger predictor of eyewitness memory accuracy compared to predictive JOLs.
  • High postdictive confidence was consistently associated with high accuracy for both same- and cross-race face recognition.

Conclusions:

  • Postdictive confidence is a more reliable indicator of eyewitness memory accuracy than predictive confidence judgments (JOLs).
  • Even high predictive confidence judgments have limited accuracy in forecasting eyewitness recall.
  • The findings highlight the importance of obtaining postdictive confidence measures in eyewitness identification research and practice.