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Spatial transmission of H5N2 highly pathogenic avian influenza between Minnesota poultry premises during the 2015

Peter J Bonney1, Sasidhar Malladi1, Gert Jan Boender2

  • 1Secure Food Systems Team, Department of Veterinary and Biomedical Sciences, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, Minnesota, United States of America.

Plos One
|September 22, 2018
PubMed

Insights

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) spread in Minnesota depended on distance and had a distance-independent component. An early marketing strategy successfully reduced HPAI spread potential.

Area of Science:

  • Veterinary Epidemiology
  • Disease Ecology
  • Spatial Analysis

Background:

  • Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) poses a significant threat to poultry industries globally.
  • Understanding spatial transmission patterns is crucial for effective outbreak control.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the spatial spread of HPAI H5N2 during the 2015 Minnesota outbreak.
  • To estimate a spatial transmission kernel and identify high-risk areas.
  • To evaluate the impact of an early marketing strategy on HPAI spread.

Main Methods:

  • Estimation of a spatial transmission kernel using maximum likelihood methods.
  • Phased analysis of the outbreak based on daily new cases.
  • Comparison with previous HPAI outbreaks in the Netherlands and Italy.
  • Development of risk maps to identify high-risk areas.

Main Results:

  • HPAI transmission showed a strong distance dependence and a significant distance-independent component.
  • Spatial spread patterns differed between early and later phases of the outbreak.
  • An early marketing strategy was found to be successful in reducing HPAI spread potential.

Conclusions:

  • Spatial transmission kernels provide valuable insights into HPAI spread dynamics.
  • Risk mapping can effectively identify areas vulnerable to HPAI.
  • Proactive strategies like early marketing can mitigate disease spread in poultry populations.

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