Patient Uncertainty as a Predictor of 30-day Return Emergency Department Visits: An Observational Study

The objective was to examine the relationship between patient uncertainty at the time of emergency department (ED) discharge as measured by the "Uncertainty Scale" (U-Scale) and 30-day return ED visits. We hypothesized that a higher score on the U-Scale predicts a higher likelihood of a 30-day return ED visit.

This was a cross-sectional single-site pilot study performed with adult patients discharged from an urban academic ED to assess the relationship of U-Scale total and subscale scores with 30-day return ED visits. We collected demographic and U-Scale scores at the time of ED discharge and subsequent 30-day ED utilization data by follow-up telephone call.

No association was found between the total U-Scale score and subsequent ED utilization. Patients with higher uncertainty on the Treatment Quality subscale of the U-Scale had higher odds of a 30-day return ED visit (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.16), while patients with lower uncertainty on the Decision to Seek Care subscale had higher odds of a 30-day return ED visit (AOR = 0.68).

Patient uncertainty as measured by the U-Scale total score was not predictive of subsequent ED utilization. However, uncertainty related to treatment quality and the decision to seek care as measured by the U-Scale subscales may be important in predicting repeat ED utilization. Unlike individual patient factors such as age and race that have been associated with frequent ED visits in prior studies, these domains of uncertainty are potentially modifiable. Providers and health systems may successfully prevent recurrent acute care encounters through implementation of interventions designed to address patient uncertainty. Further work is needed to refine the U-Scale and test its predictive utility among a larger patient cohort.