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Competing-Risk Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival in Multiple Primary Colorectal Cancer Patients after Surgery
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Nomogram model to predict postoperative relapse after mandibular osteoradionecrosis surgery.

Zhonglong Liu1, Yu'an Cao2, Chunyue Ma1

  • 1Department of Oral Maxillofacial & Head and Neck Oncology, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Zhi-zao-ju Rd, No. 639, Shanghai, 200011, China.

Journal of Cranio-Maxillo-Facial Surgery : Official Publication of the European Association for Cranio-Maxillo-Facial Surgery
|September 26, 2018
PubMed
Summary

A new nomogram effectively predicts postoperative relapse (POR) in osteoradionecrosis of the mandible (ORNM) patients. This tool identifies key risk factors, improving patient outcomes after radiotherapy.

Keywords:
Nomogram modelOsteoradionecrosis of mandiblePostoperative relapse (POR)Predictive factors

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Area of Science:

  • Oncology
  • Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery
  • Radiation Oncology

Background:

  • Osteoradionecrosis of the mandible (ORNM) is a severe complication after radiotherapy.
  • High incidence of postoperative relapse (POR) occurs even after radical resection.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Identify prognostic factors for POR in ORNM patients.
  • Develop a nomogram model to estimate POR risk.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective study of ORNM patients (2003-2016).
  • Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression for factor identification.
  • Nomogram model development and validation using ROC and calibration curves.

Main Results:

  • Radiation dose ≥80 Gy, ORNM location, S classification (S2 vs. S0), and sequestrectomy were significant POR predictors.
  • The nomogram demonstrated high predictive ability (AUC=0.813) and good calibration.
  • Incidence of POR was 24.4% in the analyzed cohort.

Conclusions:

  • The developed nomogram is effective for predicting POR risk in ORNM patients.
  • The model aids in risk stratification and management planning.