Mapping Disease Transmission Risk of Nipah Virus in South and Southeast Asia

Area of Science:

• Veterinary Epidemiology
• Disease Ecology
• Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

Background:

• Nipah virus (NiV), a highly virulent zoonotic pathogen in the *Henipavirus* genus, has caused sporadic, often fatal, outbreaks since 1998.
• Fruit bats of the genus *Pteropus* are identified wildlife reservoirs, widely distributed across South and Southeast Asia, and East Africa.
• Understanding NiV's disease biogeography is crucial for predicting its potential geographic spread and informing public health strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To model the regional disease transmission risk of Nipah virus.
• To assess niche similarity between *Pteropus* bat ecological characteristics and NiV outbreak locations.
• To identify critical ecological contributors and the geographic distribution of NiV.

Main Methods:

• Utilized R packages ENMeval and BIOMOD2 for disease transmission risk modeling.
• Employed Schoener's D index and the *I* statistic to measure niche overlap.
• Integrated ecological data with outbreak locality information.

Main Results:

• Demonstrated a high degree of niche overlap between models in geographic and environmental spaces (D statistic = 0.64; *I* statistic = 0.89).
• Projected a potential geographic distribution for NiV encompassing 19% (2,963,178 km²) of South and Southeast Asia.
• Identified significant ecological similarities between bat habitats and outbreak sites.

Conclusions:

• The findings highlight critical ecological factors influencing NiV distribution.
• The study provides a geospatial framework for identifying high-risk areas for NiV transmission.
• Results can inform and enhance national public health surveillance programs for Nipah virus.