Reliability of genomic predictions of complex human phenotypes

Genome-wide association studies have helped us identify a wealth of genetic variants associated with complex human phenotypes. Because most variants explain a small portion of the total phenotypic variation, however, marker-based studies remain limited in their ability to predict such phenotypes. Here, we show how modern statistical genetic techniques borrowed from animal breeding can be employed to increase the accuracy of genomic prediction of complex phenotypes and the power of genetic mapping studies. Specifically, using the triglyceride data of the GAW20 data set, we apply genomic-best linear unbiased prediction (G-BLUP) methods to obtain empirical genetic values (EGVs) for each triglyceride phenotype and each individual. We then study 2 different factors that influence the prediction accuracy of G-BLUP for the analysis of human data: (a) the choice of kinship matrix, and (b) the overall level of relatedness. The resulting genetic values represent the total genetic component for the phenotype of interest and can be used to represent a trait without its environmental component. Finally, using empirical data, we demonstrate how this method can be used to increase the power of genetic mapping studies. In sum, our results show that dense genome-wide data can be used in a wider scope than previously anticipated.