Using Early Childhood Behavior Problems to Predict Adult Convictions.

Area of Science:

• Developmental Psychology
• Criminology
• Educational Psychology

Background:

• Externalizing behaviors in early childhood are linked to later life outcomes.
• Predicting adult criminal convictions from childhood behavior is crucial for early intervention.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the predictive validity of teacher and parent ratings of externalizing behavior in kindergarten and 1st grade for adult convictions by age 25.
• To examine how screening tool performance varies by location, gender, and base rates of conduct problems.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data from the Fast Track Project, collecting teacher and parent ratings of externalizing behavior.
• Employed Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves to evaluate screening tool accuracy (sensitivity and specificity).
• Analyzed data across four diverse locations, considering gender and site-specific base rates.

Main Results:

• Five of six screen score combinations accurately predicted adult convictions.
• Screening tools performed better in locations with higher base rates of conduct problems.
• Single teacher screens in kindergarten or 1st grade accurately predicted convictions in high base rate populations, especially for males.

Conclusions:

• Early elementary screening for conduct problems is a strong predictor of adult criminal convictions.
• Screening tool effectiveness is influenced by demographic factors like gender and geographic location's base rates.
• Cost-effective early interventions can be targeted using predictive data from high-risk populations.