Prediction of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Epidemiology in Mersin Using Ecological Niche Modeling

In our study, we aimed to develop an ecological niche model showing current distribution of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) by using location information on 630 cases of CL reported in the Mersin province between 2005 and 2015 and bioclimatic and environmental variables.

The ecological niche model was based on interpretation of patient locations and climatic data entered in geographical information systems and maximum entropy databases.

In the model produced for the Mersin province, the area under the curve was calculated as 0.918. Also, the mean temperature of the driest quarter (BIO9), mean temperature of the warmest quarter (BIO10), and maximum temperature of the warmest month (BIO5) were determined as climatic factors that are most effective for CL distribution.

There is a relationship between distribution of CL and climatic factors in the Mersin province. The developed model will contribute to better understanding of epidemiology and control of vector-borne diseases by authorities in the ministry of health.