Cold-season disasters on the Eurasian steppes: Climate-driven or man-made

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Climate Science
• Socio-economics

Background:

• Socio-ecological damage from climate-related disasters is increasing globally.
• Dzud, a unique cold-season disaster in the Eurasian steppes (Mongolia), caused significant livestock mortality (approx. 30 million) and socio-economic impact between 2000-2014.
• Previous studies have not comprehensively assessed the combined natural and social drivers of livestock mortality during dzuds in Mongolia.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the contributions of multiple climate hazards and socioeconomic vulnerability to livestock mortality risk during dzuds in Mongolia.
• To differentiate the drivers of mortality in high-mortality hotspots versus the national average.

Main Methods:

• Multi-regression analyses were performed for each Mongolian province.
• Datasets included meteorological data, livestock numbers, and socioeconomic indicators.

Main Results:

• Dzuds in Mongolia were driven by a combination of multi-hazards (47.3%) and vulnerability (46.2%), indicating they are both climate- and human-influenced.
• In high-mortality hotspots, mortality was primarily caused by multi-hazards like drought-induced pasture deficiency and deep snow.
• Key vulnerability factors included livestock overpopulation and insufficient coping capacities (e.g., lack of hay/forage) due to socioeconomic changes since the 1990s.

Conclusions:

• Dzuds are complex disasters influenced by both environmental and socioeconomic factors.
• Reducing herder vulnerability, particularly in high-mortality areas, is crucial for mitigating future dzud risks.
• Addressing livestock overpopulation and enhancing coping capacities can build resilience against climate-related disasters.