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Increased spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature under climate change
Grace J Di Cecco1, Tarik C Gouhier2
1Northeastern University, Department of Biology, 360 Huntington Ave., Boston, MA, 02115, USA. dicecco.g@husky.neu.edu.
Scientific Reports
|October 6, 2018
Summary
Climate change will increase temperature autocorrelation, impacting ecological communities. This rise in spatial and temporal autocorrelation may heighten extinction risks for populations by reducing available refugia.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Climate Science
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Spatiotemporal variation in environmental conditions is crucial for understanding climate change impacts on ecological communities.
- Temperature autocorrelation influences community structure, persistence, and spatial rescue effects.
- Historical data show increasing temperature autocorrelation, but future impacts are unclear.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature under future climate change scenarios.
- To assess trends in temperature autocorrelation from 1871 to 2099.
- To identify potential ecological consequences of altered temperature autocorrelation.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of daily air temperature data from 21 General Circulation Models.
- Examination under a business-as-usual carbon emission scenario.
- Quantification of spatial and temporal autocorrelation patterns.
Main Results:
- Both spatial and temporal temperature autocorrelation increased significantly over time.
- Temporal autocorrelation trends exhibited notable regional variations.
- A breakpoint around 2030 indicated an accelerated increase in spatial autocorrelation.
Conclusions:
- Projected increases in temperature autocorrelation may elevate extinction risks for ecological populations.
- Erosion of spatial and temporal refugia is a likely consequence of rising autocorrelation.
- Climate change exacerbates challenges for ecological community persistence.
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