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The case against categorical risk estimates.

Nicholas Scurich1

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Communicating risk using "low/medium/high" categories is problematic. This practice lacks empirical support and obscures scientific judgment, despite its common use in forensic risk assessment.

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Area of Science:

  • Forensic Psychology
  • Risk Assessment Methodology
  • Legal Decision-Making

Background:

  • Risk estimates are communicated numerically or categorically (e.g., low/medium/high).
  • Categorical formats are preferred by legal professionals and mandated by instruments like the HCR-20 and Static-99.
  • This article critiques the empirical and normative basis of categorical risk communication.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To argue against the use of categorical risk communication in forensic settings.
  • To highlight the lack of consensus and predictive validity in categorical risk estimates.
  • To discuss the normative issues of obscuring value judgments and scientific objectivity.

Main Methods:

  • Literature review and critical analysis of existing risk assessment practices.
  • Examination of empirical evidence regarding the predictive validity of categorical vs. continuous risk estimates.
  • Normative argumentation concerning the scientific and legal implications of risk categorization.

Main Results:

  • There is no consistent definition for risk categories like "high risk."
  • Categorizing continuous risk estimates does not improve their predictive accuracy.
  • Categorization masks essential value judgments about risk outcomes, which are non-scientific.

Conclusions:

  • Categorical risk estimates are scientifically unsound and legally inappropriate.
  • The practice obscures the distinction between scientific prediction and judicial decision-making.
  • Alternative, more transparent risk communication formats should be adopted despite their limitations.