Expected changes in obesity after reformulation to reduce added sugars in beverages: A modeling study

Area of Science:

• Public Health Nutrition
• Obesity Prevention
• Dietary Policy

Background:

• Mexico implemented a 10% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in 2014.
• Product reformulation to reduce added sugars in SSBs is under consideration.
• WHO recommends added sugars contribute less than 10% of total energy intake (TEI).

Purpose of the Study:

• To propose a gradual reduction of added sugars in SSBs.
• To achieve an average 10% TEI from added sugars in the Mexican population over 10 years.
• To estimate the impact of reformulation on adult body weight and obesity.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data from the 2012 Mexico National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT).
• Defined a 50% reduction in SSB added sugars over 10 years as a reformulation target.
• Employed a dynamic weight change model, assuming 43% caloric compensation and a 2-year lag for effects.

Main Results:

• Projected decrease in TEI from added sugars to 10% within 12 years.
• Estimated a body weight reduction of 1.3 kg in the adult population.
• Anticipated a 3.9 percentage point decrease in obesity prevalence.

Conclusions:

• SSB reformulation can lead to substantial reductions in sugar consumption and obesity.
• Limitations include single dietary recall and exclusion of summer data, suggesting conservative estimates.
• Reformulation success hinges on government, industry, and consumer engagement, requiring further research.