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Updated: Feb 4, 2026

Anterior Cervical Discectomy and Fusion in the Ovine Model
Published on: October 5, 2009
The projected timeframe until cervical cancer elimination in Australia: a modelling study
Michaela T Hall1, Kate T Simms2, Jie-Bin Lew2
1Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia; School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Australia could eliminate cervical cancer within 20 years with sustained high-coverage human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and screening programs. Continued efforts are crucial for maintaining low incidence and mortality rates.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Public Health
- Vaccinology
Background:
- Australia implemented a national human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program in 2007, achieving high coverage in both sexes.
- In 2017, cervical screening transitioned to primary HPV testing every 5 years for women aged 25-69 and exit testing for ages 70-74.
- The study aims to determine when Australia can reach potential cervical cancer elimination thresholds.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model the age-standardised incidence of cervical cancer in Australia from 2015 to 2100.
- To estimate the earliest years for reaching rare cancer thresholds (6/100,000) and lower thresholds (4/100,000).
- To assess the impact of HPV vaccination and screening program changes on future incidence.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the Policy1-Cervix dynamic model, incorporating HPV vaccination, natural history, and screening.
- Included age-specific HPV vaccination coverage for girls and boys, and the switch to the nonavalent vaccine.
- Modeled the transition to primary HPV screening and two future screening scenarios for vaccinated cohorts.
Main Results:
- Cervical cancer incidence is projected to fall below 6/100,000 by 2020 (2018-22) and below 4/100,000 by 2028 (2021-35).
- Continued 5-year HPV screening for nonavalent vaccine cohorts could lead to <1 case/100,000 by 2066.
- Cervical cancer mortality may decrease to <1 death/100,000 by 2034 (2025-47).
Conclusions:
- Cervical cancer elimination as a public health problem is achievable within 20 years if high-coverage vaccination and screening are maintained.
- Sustained screening and vaccination efforts are necessary to maintain very low incidence and mortality rates.
- Australia is positioned to be among the first countries to reach these elimination benchmarks.
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