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Malaria and Early African Development: Evidence from the Sickle Cell Trait.

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Malaria significantly impacted historical African mortality, reducing survival to adulthood by ten percentage points in high-burden areas. Despite this, historical malaria prevalence showed little correlation with pre-colonial economic development metrics like population density.

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Area of Science:

  • Historical epidemiology
  • African economic history

Background:

  • Malaria has long been a significant health burden in Africa.
  • Understanding its long-term impact on societal development is crucial.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate the historical burden of malaria on mortality in Africa before formal data collection.
  • To assess the relationship between historical malaria burden and pre-colonial economic development.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized sickle cell disease mutation prevalence as a proxy for historical malaria intensity.
  • Analyzed ethnic group-level data to correlate malaria burden with population density and other development indicators.

Main Results:

  • Estimated malaria reduced adult survival probability by approximately 10% in highly affected regions.
  • Found minimal evidence linking historical malaria burden to lower population density or economic development before European contact.

Conclusions:

  • Malaria imposed a substantial mortality burden on pre-colonial Africa.
  • The study found no significant negative economic development impact from historical malaria prevalence.