A microsimulation model projecting the health care costs for resistance to antibacterial drugs in Sweden

Previous studies have shown that increasing antibacterial resistance (ABR) globally will cause extensive morbidity, deaths and escalated health care costs.

To project economic consequences of resistance to antibacterial drugs for the Swedish health care sector, we used an individual-based microsimulation model, SESIM. Health care consumption was represented as increased numbers of hospital days, outpatient visits and contact tracing for individuals getting clinical infections or becoming asymptomatic carriers. The risk of contracting a resistant bacterium was calculated using the incidence of mandatorily notifiable ABR in Sweden.

We estimate accumulated additional health care costs attributable to notifiable ABR from 2018 until 2030 to EUR 406 million and EUR 1, 503 million until 2050. Until 2030 the largest proportion, more than EUR 247 million (EUR 958 million until 2050), was due to ESBL, followed by methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus, carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae, vancomycin-resistant Enterococci and penicillin non-susceptible Pneumococci which incurred costs of EUR 128 million (EUR 453 million, 2050), EUR 15 million (EUR 58 million, 2050), EUR 13 million (EUR 28 million, 2050) and EUR 2 million (EUR 6 million, 2050), respectively.

Projections concerning the future costs of ABR can be used to guide priorities and distribution of limited health care resources. Our estimates imply that costs in Sweden will have doubled by 2030 and increased more than 4-fold by 2050 if present trends continue and infection control practices remain unchanged. Still, indirect societal costs and costs for non-notifiable resistance remain to be added.