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[Quantifying the impact of mass vaccination programmes on notified cases in the Netherlands]
Anna D Tulen1, Maarten van Wijhe1, Hester Korthals Altes1
1Centrum Infectieziektebestrijding, RIVM, Bilthoven, Nederland.
Objective:
To quantify the impact of long-standing vaccination programmes on notified cases in the Netherlands.
Design:
Estimates based on model projections of historical morbidity data.
Method:
We collected and digitised previously unavailable monthly case notifications of diphtheria, poliomyelitis, mumps and rubella in the Netherlands over the period 1919-2015. Poisson regression models accounting for seasonality, multi-year cycles, secular trends and auto-correlation were fit to pre-vaccination periods. Cases averted were calculated as the difference between observed and expected cases based on model projections.
Results:
In the first 13 years of mass vaccinations, case notifications declined rapidly with 18,900 (95%-CI: 12,000-28,600) notified cases of diphtheria averted, 5100 (95%-CI: 2200-13,500) cases of poliomyelitis, and 1800 (95%-CI: 1000-3200) cases of mumps. Vaccination of 11-year-old girls against rubella averted 13700 (95%-CI: 1400-38,300) cases, while universal rubella vaccination averted 700 (95%-CI: 80-2300) cases.
Conclusion:
These findings show that vaccination programmes have contributed substantially to the reduction of infectious diseases in the Netherlands.
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