Quantifying ecosystem services supply and demand shortfalls and mismatches for management optimisation

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Environmental Science
• Urban Planning

Background:

• Ecosystem services (ESs) research has grown, but management applications lag due to overlooked supply-demand dynamics.
• Sustainable land management necessitates aligning landscape capacity with societal needs and stakeholder interests.
• Urban areas require explicit spatial mapping of ESs supply and demand to guide land use decisions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply a framework for quantifying ESs supply and demand changes linked to land use shifts.
• To analyze ESs supply-demand balances in Shanghai municipality using environmental standards and policy objectives.
• To identify spatial heterogeneity and shortfalls in key ESs provision within urbanizing landscapes.

Main Methods:

• Developed a four-step framework to quantify ESs supply and demand changes.
• Applied regression analysis to determine ESs supply-demand balance thresholds based on land use/land cover.
• Conducted a case study in Shanghai municipality, focusing on carbon sequestration, water retention, PM10 removal, and recreation.

Main Results:

• Identified significant spatial heterogeneity in the supply and demand of four key ESs.
• Revealed substantial supply shortfalls for carbon sequestration, water retention, and recreation services.
• Demonstrated dramatic changes in ESs supply with urban land use transformation.

Conclusions:

• Urban land use change critically affects ESs, leading to deficits in essential services.
• Findings provide empirical evidence and policy implications for sustainable land management in rapidly urbanizing regions.
• Addressing ESs supply-demand mismatches is crucial for enhancing urban environmental quality and resilience.