A Nomogram for Predicting Amyloid PET Positivity in Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment

Most clinical trials focus on amyloid-β positive (Aβ+) amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI), but screening failures are high because only a half of patients with aMCI are positive on Aβ PET. Therefore, it becomes necessary for clinicians to predict which patients will have Aβ biomarker.

We aimed to compare clinical factors, neuropsychological (NP) profiles, and apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype between Aβ+ aMCI and Aβ-aMCI and to develop a clinically useful prediction model of Aβ positivity on PET (PET-Aβ+) in aMCI using a nomogram.

We recruited 523 aMCI patients who underwent Aβ PET imaging in a nation-wide multicenter cohort. The results of NP measures were divided into following subgroups: 1) Stage (Early and Late-stage), 2) Modality (Visual, Verbal, and Both), 3) Recognition failure, and 4) Multiplicity (Single and Multiple). A nomogram for PET-Aβ+ in aMCI patients was constructed using a logistic regression model.

PET-Aβ+ had significant associations with NP profiles for several items, including high Clinical Dementia Rating Scale Sum of Boxes score (OR 1.47, p = 0.013) and impaired memory modality (impaired both visual and verbal memories compared with visual only, OR 3.25, p = 0.001). Also, presence of APOEɛ4 (OR 4.14, p < 0.001) was associated with PET-Aβ+. These predictors were applied to develop the nomogram, which showed good prediction performance (C-statistics = 0.79). Its prediction performances were 0.77/0.74 in internal/external validation.

The nomogram consisting of NP profiles, especially memory domain, and APOEɛ4 genotype may provide a useful predictive model of PET-Aβ+ in patients with aMCI.