Prediction of major adverse kidney events in critically ill burn patients

We aimed at assessing the predictive value of plasmatic Neutrophil Gelatinase Associated Lipocalin (pNGAL) at admission and severity scores to predict major adverse kidney events (MAKE, defined as death and/or need for renal replacement therapy (RRT) and/or non-renal recovery at day 90) in critically ill burn patients.

Single-center cohort study in a burn critical care unit in a tertiary center, including all consecutive severely burn patients (total burned body surface >20%) from January 2012 until January 2015 with a pNGAL dosage at admission. Reclassification of patients was assessed by Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI).

87 patients were included. Mean age was 47.7 (IQ 25-75: 33.4-65.2) years; total burn body surface area was 40 (IQ 25-75: 30-55) % and ICU mortality 36%. 39 (44.8%) patients presented a MAKE, 32 (88.9%) patients died at day 90. pNGAL was higher in the MAKE group (423 [IQ 25-75: 327-518]pg/mL vs 184 [IQ 25-75: 147-220]pg/mL, p<0.001). In multivariate analysis, pNGAL and abbreviated burn severity index (ABSI) remained associated with MAKE (OR 1.005 [CI 95% 1.0005-1.009], p=0.03 and OR 1.682 [CI95%1.038-2.726], p=0.035 respectively). Adding pNGAL to abbreviated burn severity index, simplified organ failure assessment and the simplified acute physiology score 2 did outperform clinical scores for the prediction of MAKE and AKI and for most severe forms of AKI and allowed a statistically significant reclassification of patients compared to ABSI for MAKE, RRT, AKI at Day 7 and AKI during hospitalization with a number of patients needed to screen to detect one extra episode of MAKE was 44, 13 for severe AKI and 15 for AKI.

pNGAL at admission is associated with the risk of MAKE in this population, and outperform severity scores when associated. Interventional studies are now needed to assess if impact of biomarkers-guided strategies would improve outcome.