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A mathematical study to control Guinea worm disease: a case study on Chad
Indrajit Ghosh1, Pankaj Kumar Tiwari1, Sandip Mandal2
1a Agricultural and Ecological Research Unit , Indian Statistical Institute , Kolkata , West Bengal , India.
Journal of Biological Dynamics
|October 17, 2018
Summary
Guinea worm disease (GWD) eradication faces challenges from dog infections. A new mathematical model suggests isolating infected dogs and treating water sources effectively combats GWD spread in Chad.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Parasitology
Background:
- Global eradication of Guinea worm disease (GWD) is nearing completion.
- An unexplained epidemic in dog populations poses a significant challenge to GWD elimination efforts.
- Current intervention strategies for GWD rely on epidemiological understanding due to the absence of vaccines or treatments.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and analyze a realistic mathematical model of GWD dynamics incorporating human, dog, and copepod populations.
- To calibrate the model using data from Chad and assess the sensitivity of the basic reproduction number to control parameters.
- To investigate the impact of various control interventions, individually and in combination, on GWD transmission.
Main Methods:
- A novel mathematical model was developed to simulate GWD transmission dynamics.
- The model included human, dog, and copepod populations, as well as Guinea worm larvae.
- Global sensitivity analysis was performed on the basic reproduction number, and intervention impacts were simulated.
Main Results:
- The model was calibrated using case data from Chad.
- Sensitivity analysis identified key parameters influencing GWD transmission.
- Simulations demonstrated the effectiveness of interventions such as isolating infected dogs and clearing copepods from water sources.
Conclusions:
- The combination of isolating infected dogs and treating contaminated water sources is a highly effective strategy for GWD elimination in Chad.
- Mathematical modeling provides a valuable tool for understanding GWD dynamics and optimizing control strategies.
- Addressing the canine reservoir is crucial for achieving global GWD eradication.
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