Multiple input control strategies for robust and adaptive climate engineering in a low-order 3-box model

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Control Theory
• Environmental Engineering

Background:

• Climate engineering strategies, particularly solar radiation management (SRM), are being explored to counteract global warming.
• Uncertainties in climate models and external forcing necessitate robust control mechanisms for proposed interventions.
• Latitudinal temperature gradients present a significant challenge for uniform climate mitigation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate novel, robust, and adaptive climate engineering strategies for solar radiation management.
• To investigate the potential for latitudinal temperature control using a multivariable control scheme.
• To assess the efficacy of adaptive control in addressing uncertainties and perturbations within climate models.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a low-order 3-box energy balance model of the climate system.
• Implemented a multivariable control scheme with a closed-loop adaptive controller.
• Estimated control interventions under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 radiative scenario.
• Investigated system controllability and observability using multivariable control theory.

Main Results:

• Demonstrated that heat transport between latitudinal boxes allows for a degree of insolation-based latitudinal control.
• Showcased adaptive control's ability to manage uncertainties in climate models, forcing, and actuator dynamics.
• Confirmed robustness of adaptive control against abrupt perturbations and model parametrization issues.
• Identified feasible control strategies through formal analysis of system controllability and observability.

Conclusions:

• Adaptive, multivariable control offers a robust framework for implementing solar radiation management strategies.
• Latitudinal temperature regulation is achievable, mitigating regional climate disparities.
• This approach provides stability bounds and performance guarantees, crucial for effective climate intervention.