Automated Vehicles and Pedestrian Safety: Exploring the Promise and Limits of Pedestrian Detection

U.S. pedestrian fatalities have risen recently, even as vehicles are equipped with increasingly sophisticated safety and crash avoidance technology. Many experts expect that advances in automated vehicle technology will reduce pedestrian fatalities substantially through eliminating crashes caused by human error. This paper investigates automated vehicles' potential for reducing pedestrian fatalities by analyzing nearly 5,000 pedestrian fatalities recorded in 2015 in the Fatality Analysis Reporting System, virtually reconstructing them under a hypothetical scenario that replaces involved vehicles with automated versions equipped with state-of-the-art (as of December 2017) sensor technology.

This research involved the following activities: (1) establish functional ranges of state-of-the-art pedestrian sensor technologies, (2) use data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System to identify pedestrian fatalities recorded in each state in the U.S. and District of Columbia in 2015, and (3) assess the maximum numbers of pedestrian fatalities that could have been avoided had involved vehicles been replaced with autonomous versions equipped with the described sensors. The research was conducted from July to December 2017.

Sensors' abilities to detect pedestrians in advance of fatal collisions vary from <30% to >90% of fatalities. Combining sensor technologies offers the greatest potential for eliminating fatalities, but may be unrealistically expensive. Furthermore, whereas initial deployment of automated vehicles will likely be restricted to freeways and select urban areas, non-freeway streets and rural settings account for a substantial share of pedestrian fatalities.

Although technologies are being developed for automated vehicles to successfully detect pedestrians in advance of most fatal collisions, the current costs and operating conditions of those technologies substantially decrease the potential for automated vehicles to radically reduce pedestrian fatalities in the short term.