Monitoring public interest toward pertussis outbreaks: an extensive Google Trends-based analysis

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Infodemiology

Background:

• Pertussis (whooping cough) is a vaccine-preventable disease causing significant outbreaks, especially in developing nations.
• Traditional pertussis surveillance methods suffer from delays and underreporting, hindering timely intervention.
• Real-time monitoring is crucial for effective disease control and outbreak management.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate Google Trends (GT) as a tool for tracking pertussis outbreaks.
• To assess if infodemiology and infoveillance can overcome limitations of classical surveillance.
• To explore real-time web activity for public health monitoring.

Main Methods:

• Google Trends data from January 2004 to December 2015 across European countries were analyzed.
• The search term 'pertussis' was used to gather relevant search volume data.
• GT data were correlated with pertussis case and death counts from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

Main Results:

• A strong correlation (0.94–0.97) was observed between pertussis cases and Google Trends search volumes at the European level (2004–2015).
• Country-specific analyses revealed varying statistical significance, indicating a need for localized refinement.
• Google Trends demonstrates potential for real-time pertussis surveillance.

Conclusions:

• Google Trends shows promise as a valuable tool for pertussis surveillance and control.
• Further refinement of the Google Trends algorithm at the country level is recommended for improved accuracy.
• Infodemiology offers a complementary approach to traditional disease monitoring.