Ecologically informed microbial biomarkers and accurate classification of mixed and unmixed samples in an extensive...

The identification of body site-specific microbial biomarkers and their use for classification tasks have promising applications in medicine, microbial ecology, and forensics. Previous studies have characterized site-specific microbiota and shown that sample origin can be accurately predicted by microbial content. However, these studies were usually restricted to single datasets with consistent experimental methods and conditions, as well as comparatively small sample numbers. The effects of study-specific biases and statistical power on classification performance and biomarker identification thus remain poorly understood. Furthermore, reliable detection in mixtures of different body sites or with noise from environmental contamination has rarely been investigated thus far. Finally, the impact of ecological associations between microbes on biomarker discovery was usually not considered in previous work.

Here we present the analysis of one of the largest cross-study sequencing datasets of microbial communities from human body sites (15,082 samples from 57 publicly available studies). We show that training a Random Forest Classifier on this aggregated dataset increases prediction performance for body sites by 35% compared to a single-study classifier. Using simulated datasets, we further demonstrate that the source of different microbial contributions in mixtures of different body sites or with soil can be detected starting at 1% of the total microbial community. We apply a biomarker selection method that excludes indirect environmental associations driven by microbe-microbe associations, yielding a parsimonious set of highly predictive taxa including novel biomarkers and excluding many previously reported taxa. We find a considerable fraction of unclassified biomarkers ("microbial dark matter") and observe that negatively associated taxa have a surprisingly high impact on classification performance. We further detect a significant enrichment of rod-shaped, motile, and sporulating taxa for feces biomarkers, consistent with a highly competitive environment.

Our machine learning model shows strong body site classification performance, both in single-source samples and mixtures, making it promising for tasks requiring high accuracy, such as forensic applications. We report a core set of ecologically informed biomarkers, inferred across a wide range of experimental protocols and conditions, providing the most concise, general, and least biased overview of body site-associated microbes to date.