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A method for predicting Murray Valley encephalitis in southeast Australia using the Southern Oscillation
The Australian Journal of Experimental Biology and Medical Science
|December 1, 1986
Summary
Murray Valley Encephalitis outbreaks in Australia are linked to rainfall patterns influenced by the Southern Oscillation. Lowered Darwin atmospheric pressure preceding outbreaks can signal an early warning system for this mosquito-borne virus.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Epidemiology
- Climatology
Background:
- Murray Valley Encephalitis (MVE) clinical cases in southeast Australia typically manifest in summer and autumn.
- These outbreaks often follow periods of above-average rainfall across eastern and northern Australia.
- The Southern Oscillation (SO) is a significant climatic fluctuation impacting Indian and Pacific Oceans, closely correlating with Australian rainfall.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the relationship between the Southern Oscillation and Murray Valley Encephalitis occurrences in southeast Australia.
- To determine if SO indices can be utilized for predicting MVE outbreaks.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of historical clinical case data for Murray Valley Encephalitis in southeast Australia.
- Utilized Darwin atmospheric pressure, an index for the Southern Oscillation, as a predictor variable.
- Examined SO index data for seasons preceding MVE case occurrences.
Main Results:
- Darwin atmospheric pressure was consistently below average during the autumn, winter, and spring seasons prior to MVE outbreaks.
- This indicates a strong inverse relationship between SO activity and MVE occurrence.
Conclusions:
- The relationship between the Southern Oscillation and Murray Valley Encephalitis provides a basis for an early warning system.
- Utilizing Darwin atmospheric pressure as an index offers a simple, objective method for predicting potential MVE outbreaks.