Human Error Probability Assessment During Maintenance Activities of Marine Systems

Area of Science:

• Maritime Safety
• Human Factors Engineering
• Risk Management

Background:

• Shipboard maintenance involves complex human-machine interactions under demanding and variable conditions.
• Environmental and operational factors like weather, temperature, and workload significantly impact seafarer performance and safety.
• Existing risk management protocols require an effective human error probability model to address these challenges.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a robust human error probability model tailored for shipboard maintenance operations.
• To incorporate both internal (e.g., fatigue, experience) and external (e.g., environmental, workload) factors influencing seafarer performance.
• To enhance the reliability of risk management protocols in maritime settings.

Main Methods:

• A human error probability model was constructed utilizing probability theory and Bayesian networks.
• Data was collected via a questionnaire survey from over 200 experienced seafarers (>5 years experience).
• The model's reliability was assessed by evaluating human performance in specific maintenance tasks.

Main Results:

• The methodology was applied to case studies involving marine engine cooling water pump and anchor windlass maintenance.
• Human error probabilities were estimated across various scenarios and seafarer categories.
• Comparative analyses were conducted between scenarios and different seafarer groups for both engine and deck departments.

Conclusions:

• The developed model effectively assesses human error probabilities in shipboard maintenance.
• The model allows for dynamic updates of error probabilities as new information on internal and external factors becomes available.
• This facilitates continuous improvement in risk management and operational safety for seafarers.