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Mortality induced by PM2.5 exposure following the 1783 Laki eruption using reconstructed meteorological fields
Y Balkanski1, L Menut2, E Garnier3
1Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ-UPSaclay, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, France. yves.balkanski@lsce.ipsl.fr.
Scientific Reports
|October 28, 2018
Summary
The 1783 Laki eruption
Area of Science:
- Atmospheric chemistry and climate science
- Environmental health and historical epidemiology
Background:
- Reconstructing historical meteorological data is challenging due to limited observations.
- Chemistry-transport models are crucial for assessing air pollution health impacts.
Observation:
- Meteorological fields for 1783-1784 were reconstructed using a technique of analogues.
- Simulated sulfur dioxide and sulfate concentrations over the North Atlantic and Europe were analyzed.
- Contemporary data on 'dry fogs' and French parish mortality were used for model evaluation.
Findings:
- The model accurately reproduced the timing of 'dry fogs' across Europe.
- High sulfur dioxide/sulfate concentrations in June 1783 correlated with increased French mortality.
- Current exposure-risk relationships for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) explain only a small portion of the excess deaths.
Implications:
- The Laki eruption's health impact was influenced by factors beyond PM2.5, including a warm summer and limited healthcare.
- This study highlights the complexity of assessing historical air pollution health effects.
- Improved chemistry-transport models are needed for accurate prediction of pollution-related health outcomes.
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