Final outcome trends in severe traumatic brain injury: a 25-year analysis of single center data

Evidence from the last 25 years indicates a modest reduction of mortality after severe traumatic head injury (sTBI). This study evaluates the variation over time of the whole Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) throughout those years.

The study is an observational cohort study of adults (≥ 15 years old) with closed sTBI (GCS ≤ 8) who were admitted within 48 h after injury. The final outcome was the 1-year GOS, which was divided as follows: (1) dead/vegetative, (2) severely disabled (dependent patients), and (3) good/moderate recovery (independent patients). Patients were treated uniformly according to international protocols in a dedicated ICU. We considered patient characteristics that were previously identified as important predictors and could be determined easily and reliably. The admission years were divided into three intervals (1987-1995, 1996-2004, and 2005-2012), and the following individual CT characteristics were noted: the presence of traumatic subarachnoid or intraventricular hemorrhage (tSAH, IVH), midline shift, cisternal status, and the volume of mass lesions (A × B × C/2). Ordinal logistic regression was performed to estimate associations between predictors and outcomes. The patients' estimated propensity scores were included as an independent variable in the ordinal logistic regression model (TWANG R package).

The variables associated with the outcome were age, pupils, motor score, deterioration, shock, hypoxia, cistern status, IVH, tSAH, and epidural volume. When adjusting for those variables and the propensity score, we found a reduction in mortality from 55% (1987-1995) to 38% (2005-2012), but we discovered an increase in dependent patients from 10 to 21% and just a modest increase in independent patients of 6%.

This study covers 25 years of management of sTBI in a single neurosurgical center. The prognostic factors are similar to those in the literature. The improvement in mortality does not translate to better quality of life.