Predicting Alcohol Misuse Among Australian 19-Year-Olds from Adolescent Drinking Trajectories

Area of Science:

• Adolescent health
• Public health
• Substance use research

Background:

• Adolescent alcohol use is a predictor of future alcohol misuse.
• The specific risks associated with different adolescent drinking patterns are not well understood.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate how adolescent alcohol consumption trajectories predict alcohol misuse at age 19.
• To identify distinct patterns of alcohol use during school years.

Main Methods:

• Longitudinal study of 707 Australian students over 7 years.
• Identified five alcohol use trajectories from age 12 to 17.
• Assessed heavy episodic drinking, alcohol dependency (AUDIT), and social harms at age 19.

Main Results:

• At age 19, 64% reported heavy episodic drinking, 42% high AUDIT scores, and 23% social harms.
• Steeply increasing alcohol use trajectories were associated with significantly higher odds of misuse (dependency, social harms, heavy episodic drinking).
• Stable moderate use also increased heavy episodic drinking risk; abstinence predicted reduced misuse.

Conclusions:

• Adolescent drinking frequency trajectories predict adult alcohol misuse.
• Rapidly increasing use presents the greatest risk, but even slow increases elevate risk compared to abstinence.
• Alcohol policies should encourage nonuse and reduced frequency of use among adolescents.