Increased risk of non-AIDS-defining cancers in Asian HIV-infected patients: a long-term cohort study

Data on the long-term risks of non-AIDS defining cancers (NADCs) are limited, especially in Asians. The incidence of NADCs may correlate with the epidemiological trend of cancers or oncogenic infection in each country, and thus the target cancers would be different between Western and Asian countries. We aimed to elucidate the incidence of NADCs and its predictive factors in Asian HIV-infected patients.

Subjects were HIV-infected patients (n = 1001) periodically followed-up for 9 years on average. NADCs were diagnosed by histopathology and/ or imaging findings. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) were calculated as the ratio of the observed to expected number of NADCs for comparison with an age-and sex-matched general population. Cox's proportional hazards model was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR).

During the median follow-up of 9 years, the 10-year cumulative incidence of NADCs was 6.4%.At NADC diagnosis, half of patients presented at age 40-59 years and with advanced tumor stage. Compared with the age-and sex-matched general population, HIV-infected patients are at increased risk for liver cancer (SIR, 4.7), colon cancer (SIR, 2.1), and stomach cancer (SIR, 1.8). In multivariate analysis, a predictive model for NADCs was developed that included age group (40-49, 50-59, 60-69, and ≥ 70 years), smoker, HIV infection through blood transmission, and injection drug use (IDU), and HBV co-infection. The c-statistic for the NADCs predictive model was 0.8 (95%CI, 0.8-0.9, P < 0.001). The higher 10-year incidence rate of NADCs was associated with increasing prediction score.

Liver and colon cancer risk was elevated in Asian HIV-infected individuals, similar to in Western populations, whereas stomach cancer risk was characteristically elevated in Asian populations. Half of Asian NADC patients were aged 40-59 years and had advanced-stage disease at diagnosis. Periodic cancer screening may be warranted for high-risk subpopulations with smoking habit, HIV infection through blood transmission or IDU, and HBV co-infection, and screening should be started over 40 years of age.