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The increasing variability of tropical cyclone lifetime maximum intensity
Jinjie Song1,2,3, Philip J Klotzbach4, Jianping Tang5
1Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather, Ministry of Education, Nanjing, China. songjinjie@nju.edu.cn.
Scientific Reports
|November 11, 2018
Summary
Global tropical cyclone (TC) intensity variability has increased from 1981-2016. This trend is linked to more frequent weak and strong TCs, indicating climate change impacts on storm intensity.
Area of Science:
- Climatology
- Meteorology
- Oceanography
Background:
- Long-term changes in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity variability are understudied.
- Understanding these changes is crucial for climate change impact assessments.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate long-term trends in the variability of global TC lifetime maximum intensity (LMI).
- To identify the factors contributing to observed changes in TC intensity distribution.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of TC LMI data from 1981-2016.
- Statistical examination of LMI standard deviation trends across hemispheres and specific basins.
- Comparison of TC intensity distributions between two distinct periods (1981-1998 and 1999-2016).
Main Results:
- A statistically significant increase in global TC LMI variability was observed from 1981-2016.
- This trend was significant in both Northern and Southern Hemispheres and specific TC basins.
- Changes in the proportions of weak, moderate, and strong TCs, with an increase in weak and strong categories, drive this trend.
Conclusions:
- The observed increase in TC intensity variability is linked to a bimodal shift in TC intensity distribution.
- Tropical cyclones undergoing rapid intensification (RI) show increased average LMI, while non-RI TCs show decreased average LMI.
- Global warming correlates with strengthened strong TCs and weakened weak TCs.
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