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The step-like evolution of Arctic open water
Michael A Goldstein1,2, Amanda H Lynch3,4, Andras Zsom5
1Climate Change Research Center, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia. goldstein@babson.edu.
Scientific Reports
|November 17, 2018
Summary
Arctic sea ice shows critical points with multiple shifts in open water fraction detected in Pacific and Atlantic sectors. These breakpoints indicate potential irreversible changes in Arctic sea ice conditions.
Area of Science:
- Climatology
- Oceanography
- Remote Sensing
Background:
- Arctic sea ice extent is a critical indicator of global climate change.
- Analyzing historical sea ice concentration data reveals significant trends and potential regime shifts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the September open water fraction in the Arctic using satellite data from 1979-2017.
- To identify breakpoints (shifts in the mean) in Arctic sea ice concentration data across different sectors.
Main Methods:
- Utilized satellite era record of ice concentration (1979-2017).
- Applied statistical models to detect breakpoints in Pacific, Atlantic, Canadian, and Russian sectors.
- Compared breakpoint models with linear trend models for data fitting.
Main Results:
- Identified three breakpoints in the Pacific sector (1989, 2002, 2007) and multiple breakpoints in the Atlantic sector (1971, 2000, 2011).
- Detected multiple breakpoints in Canadian and Russian sectors, and for the Arctic as a whole.
- Breakpoint models significantly outperformed linear trend models in fitting the observed data.
Conclusions:
- Results support the hypothesis of critical points in Arctic sea ice, beyond which recovery is less probable.
- Employing breakpoint means for data detrending is more reliable than linear detrending, avoiding spurious signals.
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