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Updated: Feb 2, 2026

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The effect of transmission variance on observer placement for source-localization.

Brunella Spinelli1, L Elisa Celis1, Patrick Thiran1

  • 1École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland.

Applied Network Science
|November 17, 2018
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Summary

Identifying epidemic origins is vital but difficult with sparse data. Optimal observer placement for source detection depends on network structure and transmission delay variance, requiring different strategies for low- and high-variance scenarios.

Keywords:
EpidemicsSensor placementSource localization

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Network Science
  • Data Science

Background:

  • Source localization of epidemics is critical for intervention.
  • Sparse and noisy data present significant challenges in epidemic source detection.
  • Observer placement significantly impacts the accuracy of epidemic source identification.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop optimal observer placement strategies for epidemic source localization.
  • To investigate the influence of network topology and transmission delay variance on observer placement.
  • To propose algorithms for observer placement in both low- and high-variance transmission delay regimes.

Main Methods:

  • Analyzing network topology and node-to-node transmission delay variance.
  • Developing observer placement algorithms tailored to different variance regimes.
  • Simulating and validating proposed methods on real-world network data.

Main Results:

  • Optimal observer placement is dependent on both network topology and transmission delay variance.
  • In low-variance regimes, placement based on network distances is sufficient.
  • In high-variance regimes, observers must be placed closer together to mitigate noise and ensure informative data.

Conclusions:

  • Novel observer placement strategies improve epidemic source localization accuracy.
  • The proposed methods outperform state-of-the-art strategies in both low- and high-variance transmission delay scenarios.
  • Effective observer placement is crucial for accurate epidemic source detection in complex networks.