Metabolic Theory and the Temperature-Size Rule Explain the Temperature Dependence of Population Carrying Capacity

The temperature dependence of highly conserved subcellular metabolic systems affects ecological patterns and processes across scales, from organisms to ecosystems. Population density at carrying capacity plays an important role in evolutionary processes, biodiversity, and ecosystem function, yet how it varies with temperature-dependent metabolism remains unclear. Though the exponential effect of temperature on intrinsic population growth rate, r, is well known, we still lack clear evidence that population density at carrying capacity, K, declines with increasing per capita metabolic rate, as predicted by the metabolic theory of ecology (MTE). We experimentally tested whether temperature effects on photosynthesis propagate directly to population carrying capacity in a model species, the mobile phytoplankton Tetraselmis tetrahele. After maintaining populations at a fixed resource supply and fixed temperatures for 43 days, we found that carrying capacity declined with increasing temperature. This decline was predicted quantitatively when models included temperature-dependent metabolic rates and temperature-associated body-size shifts. Our results demonstrate that warming reduces carrying capacity and that temperature effects on body size and metabolic rate interact to determine how temperature affects population dynamics. These findings bolster efforts to relate metabolic temperature dependence to population and ecosystem patterns via MTE.