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Estimation of Pneumonic Plague Transmission in Madagascar, August-November 2017

Maimuna S Majumder1, Emily L Cohn2, Mauricio Santillana3

  • 1Computational Epidemiology Group, Division of Emergency Medicine, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, United States; Institute for Data, Systems, and Society (IDSS), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States.

Plos Currents
|November 20, 2018
PubMed
Abstract

Insights

Madagascar experienced an unusual pneumonic plague outbreak in 2017. Despite its rapid spread, control strategies like contact tracing and antibiotics proved effective in managing the epidemic.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious Disease Dynamics
  • Public Health Interventions

Background:

  • Madagascar reported nearly 2500 plague cases between August and November 2017.
  • The majority of cases were pneumonic plague, characterized by person-to-person transmission and rapid growth.
  • This outbreak was atypical, as plague in Madagascar is usually bubonic and results in smaller caseloads.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the transmission dynamics of the 2017 pneumonic plague outbreak in Madagascar.
  • To evaluate the role and effectiveness of control strategies implemented during the outbreak.

Main Methods:

  • Mathematical modeling of plague transmission using outbreak data from August to November 2017.
  • Identification of periods of effective disease control based on intervention timelines.

Main Results:

  • The estimated basic reproduction number (R0) for pneumonic plague ranged from 1.6 to 3.6, with a mean of 2.4.
  • Two distinct periods of "control" were identified, correlating with the implementation of key interventions.
  • Interventions included contact tracing, antibiotic administration, and other public health measures.

Conclusions:

  • Existing control strategies remain effective against plague in Madagascar.
  • The study highlights the importance of timely and robust interventions in managing even large-scale, atypical plague outbreaks.
Keywords:
Madagascarplague

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