Predictive Modeling of Energy and Emissions from Shale Gas Development

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Energy Policy
• Geosciences

Background:

• Quantifying energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from preproduction shale gas activities is crucial for environmental impact assessments.
• Existing studies often lack detailed breakdowns of energy consumption and emissions across various development stages.
• Understanding these contributions is vital for effective climate policy and sustainable natural gas development.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify the energy requirements and GHG emissions associated with individual preproduction activities in shale gas development.
• To develop a predictive modeling approach combining reservoir physics and basin attributes for accurate assessment.
• To provide a comprehensive analysis focused on the Montney basin in Canada.

Main Methods:

• Utilized predictive modeling integrating reservoir development physics with shale gas basin depositional attributes.
• Modeled energy use during drilling, fluid pumping for hydraulic fracturing, and preproduction emissions from operations and potential gas releases.
• Focused analysis on the Montney basin, Canada, detailing activities and events at each development stage.

Main Results:

• Well drilling and mud circulation activities exhibit significantly higher energy intensity compared to hydraulic fracturing.
• Flowback gas during well completion is identified as the predominant potential source of GHG emissions.
• Estimated GHG emissions from new Montney Formation wells in 2017 were 2.68 Mt CO2e.

Conclusions:

• Preproduction energy use and GHG emissions in shale gas development require careful quantification, with drilling and flowback gas being key factors.
• The developed modeling approach provides a reliable method for assessing environmental impacts, extendable globally.
• Energy return on invested energy for Montney shale gas is estimated at approximately 3400, highlighting energy efficiency on a preproduction basis.