Touching beliefs: Using touchscreen technology to elicit subjective expectations in survey research

Area of Science:

• Behavioral Economics
• Econometrics
• Survey Methodology

Background:

• Accurate measurement of subjective expectations is crucial for analyzing individual decision-making under uncertainty.
• Existing methods for eliciting subjective expectations may have limitations, particularly in developing countries.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a novel touchscreen-based application for eliciting point subjective expectations.
• To compare the performance and respondent experience of the new method against traditional visual aids.

Main Methods:

• Development of a touchscreen application featuring an animated slider and dynamic images that change relative sizes.
• Comparison of the slider method with a traditional method using beans as visual aids.
• Assessment of respondent understanding of probability concepts and preference for elicitation methods.

Main Results:

• Respondents demonstrated a solid grasp of basic probability concepts.
• Distributions elicited by the slider method and the bean method were found to be highly comparable.
• Respondents reported a more favorable opinion of the slider method and greater willingness to complete long surveys using it.

Conclusions:

• The touchscreen slider method is a viable and preferred tool for collecting data on subjective expectations in developing countries.
• This method offers a potentially more engaging and efficient alternative for empirical researchers.
• Findings support the use of technology-enhanced survey tools to improve data quality in behavioral research.