Modeling as a Decision Support Tool for Bovine TB Control Programs in Wildlife

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical modeling
• Wildlife disease ecology

Background:

• Computer modeling is crucial for understanding disease dynamics and wildlife management.
• Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) presents complex challenges in badger and cattle populations.
• Previous models have informed badger management strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To review badger bovine TB models and their impact on decision-making.
• To explore the integration of cattle into TB models for comparative analysis.
• To discuss future directions for modeling bTB in badger-cattle systems.

Main Methods:

• Evolution of compartmental models (SEI, SEIR, SEI1I2) to spatially-explicit individual-based models.
• Integration of cattle populations into badger TB models.
• Economic analysis of different badger management strategies.

Main Results:

• Model estimates of R0 suggest bTB should be controllable, contrasting with practical observations.
• Combined strategies involving both host species and vaccination appear most effective.
• Future models must incorporate partial protection and duration of immunity from vaccines like BCG.

Conclusions:

• Modeling is a valuable tool for bTB management interventions.
• Next-generation models require ecological and epidemiological data for improved accuracy.
• Integrated approaches considering both badger and cattle populations are essential for effective bTB control.