The geographic variation and spatiotemporal distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in Libya: 2007-2016

Hepatitis C Virus infection has been considered an important hidden pandemic in developing countries, particularly in Africa. It varies greatly from one region to another and even within districts of the same region. Macroscopic geospatial analysis has become an important scientific tool for identifying the density and clustering of HCV infection and provides epidemiological information for planning interventions and control strategies. The application of these parameters provides a better knowledge of the hepatitis C virus infection prevalence at the national level and can help to implement pertinent strategies to address the HCV-related burdens. This study aims to determine the geographical variability of HCV infection in Libya and to identify the hot spots within regions and districts of the country, and to analyze the population-based demographic determinants involved and outline the intervention programs needed.

Disease mapping and spatial analysis were conducted using geographic information data available on all documented cases of HCV infections in Libya between 2007 and 2016. Spatial autocorrelation was tested using Moran's Index, which determines and measures the degree of clustering and dispersion of HCV infection in a country.

A total 114,928 HCV infection cases during a ten-year period with accurate geographic information were studied. Ages ranged between 16 and 50 years and the male to female ratio was 2:1. HCV infection was unevenly distributed in Libya, and its incidence increased steadily over the study period. Several hot spots and cold spots were found mainly in the southern and eastern regions of the country.

HCV infection in Libya was geographically variable, with several hot spots particularly in eastern and southern Libya associated with different demographic determinants. Future intervention planning should consider the geospatial variability and risk factors involved.