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Communicating uncertainty in policy analysis.

Charles F Manski1

  • 1Department of Economics and Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208-2600 cfmanski@northwestern.edu.

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|November 28, 2018
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Policy analysis often presents predictions with unwarranted certainty. This work highlights the need for transparently communicating uncertainty in policy evaluations for credible scientific communication.

Keywords:
communication of uncertaintyincredible certitudepolicy analysis

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Area of Science:

  • Social Sciences
  • Public Policy
  • Scientific Communication

Background:

  • Policy analysis involves evaluating past policies and predicting future outcomes.
  • A common practice is to report policy analysis with high certainty, masking underlying uncertainties.
  • This often leads to a lack of credibility due to unsupported assumptions and limited data.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To document the prevalent practice of "incredible certitude" in policy analysis.
  • To advocate for transparent communication of uncertainty in policy evaluations.
  • To provide a framework for understanding and addressing this issue.

Main Methods:

  • Review and synthesis of existing work on policy analysis and scientific communication.
  • Development of a typology of practices contributing to incredible certitude.
  • Inclusion of illustrative examples to demonstrate the problem.

Main Results:

  • Policy analysis frequently exhibits "incredible certitude," overstating the precision of predictions.
  • Expressions of uncertainty are rare, despite fragile assumptions and limited data.
  • A typology of practices leading to this overconfidence is presented.

Conclusions:

  • The expressed certitude in policy analysis is often not credible.
  • Transparent communication of uncertainty is crucial for robust and trustworthy policy evaluation.
  • Suggestions are offered for improving how uncertainty is communicated in policy analysis.