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Statistical physics models for aftershocks and induced seismicity.

Molly Luginbuhl1, John B Rundle2,3,4, Donald L Turcotte3

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Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences
|November 28, 2018
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study introduces nowcasting, a time-dependent method for seismic hazard forecasting. It uses natural time and Gutenberg-Richter scaling to predict earthquake rates, improving upon the standard relative intensity method.

Keywords:
aftershocksinduced seismicitynatural timenowcasting

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Area of Science:

  • Geophysics
  • Statistical Seismology
  • Earthquake Science

Background:

  • The relative intensity (RI) method assumes constant seismicity rates.
  • Forecasting seismic hazard typically relies on Gutenberg-Richter scaling for earthquake occurrence.
  • Existing methods do not adequately capture time-dependent seismicity, such as aftershock sequences.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce and review the concept of seismic nowcasting.
  • To extend relative intensity forecasting to time-dependent seismicity.
  • To demonstrate the application of nowcasting in real-time seismic hazard assessment.

Main Methods:

  • Utilizing 'natural time,' defined as the count of small earthquakes, as a key parameter.
  • Extrapolating the rate of small earthquakes to larger events using Gutenberg-Richter scaling.
  • Applying nowcasting to analyze aftershock sequences and induced seismicity.

Main Results:

  • Nowcasting allows for real-time determination of seismicity rates during aftershock sequences.
  • The method was applied to the 2004 Parkfield earthquake aftershock sequence.
  • Nowcasting was used to evaluate interventions aimed at reducing induced seismicity in Oklahoma and Groningen.

Conclusions:

  • Nowcasting provides a valuable tool for time-dependent seismic hazard forecasting.
  • The method enhances the understanding and management of earthquake sequences.
  • Seismic nowcasting offers insights into the effectiveness of mitigation strategies for induced seismicity.