The macroecology and macroevolution of plant species at risk

Contents Summary 708 I. Introduction 708 II. Fossils and phylogenies: learning from our past 708 III. Threatened species and Red Lists 710 IV. The geography of threat 710 V. The taxonomy of threat 710 VI. Predicting species at risk 711 VII. Conclusion 711 Acknowledgements 712 References 712 SUMMARY: Current rates of extinction are unprecedented in human history. The fossil record and newer molecular phylogenies illuminate historical patterns of speciation and extinction. They reveal both spectacular radiations and the characteristic features of mass extinction events in our geological past. The IUCN Red List provides insight into present-day species declines. There is emerging synthesis that species at risk are nonrandomly distributed across space and phylogeny. This pattern may be explained by geographical variation in driver intensity and species differential sensitivities. However, traits that confer resistance to one global change driver may increase susceptibility to a different driver. A complete understanding of extinction risk requires consideration of the interaction between extinction drivers, ecological traits, and species' evolutionary histories.