Using landscape scenarios to improve local nitrogen management and planning

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Agricultural Science
• Spatial Planning

Background:

• Scenario-building is a key tool for exploring future land uses and visualizing societal trends.
• Agricultural nitrogen management is critical, with farmer decisions on inputs, rotations, and land use significantly impacting ecosystems.
• Smaller catchments dominated by farming present unique challenges for effective nitrogen management.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate how landscape scenarios can guide farmers in improving nitrogen management within agricultural catchments.
• To develop and evaluate participatory-based landscape scenarios for future nitrogen management strategies.
• To assess the effectiveness of different scenario types in reducing nitrogen emissions and leaching.

Main Methods:

• Utilized participatory modeling to develop landscape scenarios focused on agricultural nitrogen management.
• Employed an ArcMap-based tool integrating statistical data, experimental knowledge, and nitrate leaching models.
• Incorporated input from local stakeholders on biophysical, land use, and farm management aspects.

Main Results:

• Three distinct scenarios (River valley set-aside, constructed wetlands, land zonation) were developed and modeled.
• All modeled scenarios demonstrated a positive effect, estimating a reduction in nitrogen leached to the root zone.
• The co-creative scenario formulation increased knowledge and ownership among stakeholders regarding future solutions.

Conclusions:

• Participatory landscape scenarios are a feasible, albeit costly, tool for future environmental planning in agricultural landscapes.
• The co-creative approach enhances understanding and acceptance of potential solutions for nitrogen management.
• Transaction costs of scenario planning must be weighed against benefits for successful implementation, particularly in the context of targeted nitrogen regulation.