Climate-induced phenological shifts in a Batesian mimicry complex

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Evolutionary Biology
• Climate Change Biology

Background:

• Climate change can alter species' phenology, potentially decoupling ecological interactions.
• Previous research on phenological shifts has rarely quantified fitness consequences for interacting species.
• Batesian mimicry systems, involving models and mimics, are sensitive to temporal synchrony.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the fitness consequences of changing phenological synchrony in Batesian mimicry complexes.
• To determine how climate change impacts the temporal dynamics between stinging insects (Hymenoptera) and their hoverfly mimics (Syrphidae).
• To assess the fitness outcomes for models, mimics, and predators under different phenological scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Defined mimicry relationships for 2,352 Hymenoptera-Syrphidae pairs using citizen science data.
• Analyzed phenological shifts of models and mimics.
• Utilized computer game-based experiments to simulate phenological scenarios and measure fitness outcomes for all actors.

Main Results:

• No direct relationship was found between the phenological shifts of models and their mimics.
• Computer simulations confirmed differing fitness outcomes for models, mimics, and predators across phenological scenarios, indicating a phenologically antagonistic system.
• Climate change is increasing model-first occurrence patterns, potentially altering fitness across the mimicry complex.

Conclusions:

• Changing phenological synchrony due to climate change has significant, complex fitness consequences for Batesian mimicry systems.
• This study provides evidence for overlooked fitness costs associated with altered temporal interactions.
• The findings highlight the intricate effects of climate change on coevolving species and ecological interactions.