Habitat fragmentation, biodiversity loss and the risk of novel infectious disease emergence

The number of microbes on Earth may be 10³⁰, exceeding all other diversity. A small number of these can infect people and cause disease. The diversity of parasitic organisms likely correlates with the hosts they live in and the number mammal hosts for zoonotic infections increases with species richness among mammalian orders. Thus, while habitat loss and fragmentation may reduce species diversity, the habitat encroachment by people into species-rich areas may increase the exposure of people to novel infectious agents from wildlife. Here, we present a theoretical framework that exploits the species-area relationship to link the exposure of people to novel infections with habitat biodiversity. We model changes in human exposure to microbes through defined classes of habitat fragmentation and predict that increased habitat division intrinsically increases the hazard from microbes for all modelled biological systems. We apply our model to African tropical forests as an example. Our results suggest that it is possible to identify high-risk areas for the mitigation and surveillance of novel disease emergence and that mitigation measures may reduce this risk while conserving biodiversity.