Autism Spectrum Disorder: Incidence and Time Trends Over Two Decades in a Population-Based Birth Cohort

We retrospectively identified autism spectrum disorder (ASD) incident cases among 31,220 individuals in a population-based birth cohort based on signs and symptoms uniformly abstracted from medical and educational records. Inclusive and narrow research definitions of ASD (ASD-R_I and ASD-R_N, respectively) were explored, along with clinical diagnoses of ASD (ASD-C) obtained from the records. The incidence of ASD-R_I, ASD-R_N, and ASD-C increased significantly from 1985 to 1998, then ASD-R_I and ASD-R_N plateaued while the rate of ASD-C continued to increase during 1998-2004. The rising incidence of research-defined ASD may reflect improved recognition and documentation of ASD signs and symptoms. Although the frequency of threshold ASD symptoms stabilized, the rate of ASD-C continued to increase, narrowing the gap between clinical ascertainment and symptom documentation.