The Effectiveness of Scoring Systems in the Prediction of Diagnosis-Based Mortality

Scoring systems are used for mortality and morbidity rating in intensive care conditions, prognosis prediction, standardization of scientific data and the monitoring of clinical quality. The aim of this study was to retrospectively analyze the efficacy of APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation), APACHE IV and SAPS (Simplified Acute Physiology Score) III prognostic scorings in the prediction of mortality and disease severity of patients admitted to the Anesthesia and Reanimation Clinic Intensive Care Unit (ICU) in Bakırköy Dr. Sadi Konuk Training and Research Hospital according to general and specific diagnoses. A total of 1896 patient files were included in the study. With the exception of single system or head trauma patient groups, a statistically significant difference was found in the mortality prediction rates in all other diagnosis groups (P < 0.05). The discrimination calculated with AUROC fields was sufficient in all groups, and calibration was evaluated as good except for the neurological and neurosurgical patient group. In respect of standard mortality prediction, APACHE II and IV were good in cases of sepsis, and SAPS III made almost exact predictions for cardiovascular diseases, APACHE II for neurological diseases, and APACHE IV for gastrointestinal system diseases. From the results of this study, it was seen that different scoring systems vary in predictions according to the diagnoses, therefore, it can be recommended that the diagnosis should be taken into account more when applying scoring systems.